• Higher oil and gas prices are expected to lift inflation globally, with countries like China, South Korea, and India also facing stronger price pressure.
• The OECD says the longer the conflict lasts, the more it raises business costs, consumer prices, and downside risks for global growth.
• US growth is expected to slow to 2.0% this year and 1.7% in 2027, while global growth is forecast to ease from 3.3% last year to 2.9% in 2026.
• The OECD also highlights broader supply-chain risks in fertilisers, sulphur, helium, bromine, and semiconductor-related industrial inputs, not just oil.
• Iran may not have a strong short-term incentive to end the conflict quickly, especially if its demands now go beyond just de-escalation.
• Some reports suggest the regime wants sanctions or embargo pressure lifted after decades, and is also pushing for war reparations, which could make negotiations longer and messier.
• That means volatility could stay elevated for longer than many expect, even if markets try to price in a quick resolution.
For short-term traders, VIX exposure or hedges can make sense if using options during war-driven headlines.
For long-term investors, the bigger view may still be that markets eventually digest the shock, but near-term swings could stay brutal.
Short term: hedge the volatility. Long term: the market should be fine, but this war may take longer to resolve than people think.
